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Category: Health

Just as India was ready to breathe a sigh of relief following the disastrous second wave of COVID-19 in April and May, warning signals of a third wave began to appear in several parts of the country. Various institutes' mathematical models predict that India would see a rise in COVID-19 infections as early as the end of August, paving the way for the coming third wave. After struggling to prepare fully for the second wave of coronavirus infections, authorities and health experts are now constantly alerting people about the likelihood of a third wave. In addition, local administrations and some hospitals have already begun ramping up their infrastructure in anticipation of a fresh surge in cases after a few months. India reported 40,134 new Covid-19 cases and over 400 deaths, bringing the total number of positive cases to 3,16,95,958. The number of Covid-19 cases increased week over week for the first time since mid-May, following the reduction in the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. The latest changes could be precursors to the much-anticipated third wave, which experts predict will strike India in the first few weeks of August. For the record, coronavirus cases increased in 17 Indian states and union territories on Sunday. Kerala has had the most increase in the last week. Will the third wave be more powerful? Some speculate that the third wave will be much stronger than the second. This, however, is not something that can be foretold. Typically, each new wave is predicted to be weaker than the prior one. This is because the virus has a relatively free run when it first appears, given that the entire population is vulnerable. There would be considerably fewer susceptible people because some would have developed immunity. This rationale, however, has been flipped on its head in the case of India. When the number of cases in India began to decline after mid-September last year, just a very small proportion of the population had become sick. Given that such a high fraction of the population was still vulnerable, there was no reason for the disease's spread to have halted. The causes for the five-month continuous reduction in cases in India are yet unknown. Because the second wave was projected to be weaker than the first, many people were lead to believe that the pandemic was coming to an end. However, with the unpleasant lessons learned, there are now speculations that the third wave will be even stronger. However, this may not be the case. During the second wave, substantially more persons were infected than during the first. With a positivity rate nearly four times that of the previous wave, the number of unconfirmed illnesses — individuals who were never tested — is expected to be significant. Vaccination would also provide immunity to a huge part of the population. As a result, following the second wave, the population would have a much-decreased number of susceptible persons. However, gene mutations in the virus can cause these computations to be altered. The virus can change in ways that allow it to evade immune responses generated in previously infected people or those who have been vaccinated. What kind of destruction would this surge cause? The saving grace in most such estimates is that the third wave is expected to be far smaller than the preceding one, in which cases ranged to over four lakhs each day. However, according to the IITs' SUTRA model, the daily case